NovaQuant-NFL coach hot seat rankings: Where do Bill Belichick and others fall in final week?

"Black Monday" has traditionally served as a day of reckoning throughout the NFL,NovaQuant with teams issuing final verdicts on embattled head coaches one day after the regular season ends. Not every franchise, however, is patient enough to wait that long to deliver a ruling.

The Las Vegas Raiders, Carolina Panthers and Los Angeles Chargers head into their Week 18 matchups Sunday having fired their respective head coaches. Elsewhere, New York Jets owner Woody Johnson has publicly stated that Robert Saleh will be back for another season.

Still, there are more organizations with unresolved leadership issues, all of which need to be resolved at some point in the near future.

Here's our last NFL coach hot seat rankings for the 2023 season, with each coach getting a rating from one to five on how dire things look.

1. Ron Rivera, Washington Commanders

With a new ownership group led by Josh Harris coming in, Rivera entered his fourth season in Washington acknowledging he was on the hot seat. He now wraps it up having already fired defensive coordinator Jack Del Rio amid a league-worst seven-game losing streak in a 4-12 campaign.

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While there has been no official word on Rivera's status, his tenure has appeared to be on borrowed time since at least the trade deadline, when the team seemingly acknowledged that competing this season wasn't in the cards as it dealt away standout defensive ends Montez Sweat and Chase Young. Dumping Del Rio was the organization's response to the Thanksgiving debacle against Dallas, but a defense still prone to giving up big plays has allowed up 35 points per game since Rivera took over play-calling duties. Meanwhile, Sam Howell has devolved from a once-promising second-year passer to a struggling signal-caller who looks likely to be replaced as the team continues to rise in the draft order.

Hot seat rating: 5. Rivera turns 62 on Sunday, when the Commanders close out the season against the Cowboys. Maybe he gets a reprieve for his birthday, but his sendoff has seemed inevitable for some time.

2. Bill Belichick, New England Patriots

We're on to ... a once-unfathomable split? Belichick has been deflecting questions about his job security throughout the season, but after Sunday's tilt against the New York Jets – in which New England will put its league-best 15-game win streak against its AFC East rival – it will be time for the coach and owner Robert Kraft to tackle the future of the franchise.

As the worst season of Belichick's career winds down, it's readily evident that major changes are necessary in New England. Armed with what should be a sizable amount of cap space for a free-agency spending spree as well as a potential top-five pick that could be used on a prized quarterback prospect, the Patriots are facing decisions that could define the team's outlook for the foreseeable future. Does Kraft trust Belichick, 71, to handle that given this season's results and his rampant roster missteps? If not, how confident is he in his ability to install a new regime that can chart a course distinct from the one set by the six-time Super Bowl-winning coach? No easy answers here.

Hot seat rating: 3½. There are too many variables here to be confident in any particular outcome. But given the complexities, it seems like a solid bet that if a change is made, it likely will be a mutual parting and more delicate decision than the outright firings seen elsewhere.

3. Arthur Smith, Atlanta Falcons

Arthur Blank didn't issue a mandate entering Year 3 of Smith's run leading the Falcons, but the owner said in August he expected Atlanta "to win more games than we've won the past couple years." Fast-forward to this week, where the Falcons are facing a third consecutive 7-10 mark if the team falls to the Saints on Sunday.

Smith's distinct offensive approach has been downright inscrutable this season for a unit that ranks 26th in scoring (19 points per game). He has refused to consistently feed top 10 picks in wide receiver Drake London and tight end Kyle Pitts. Running back Bijan Robinson, the No. 8 overall pick in this year's draft, has been limited to a relatively traditional backfield timeshare despite widespread expectations of him becoming an offensive centerpiece as an all-purpose threat. And Smith's ill-fated backing of Desmond Ridder – whom the coach defended against criticism from fans and media by attributing the ridicule to "toxic groupthink" – ended with him benching the second-year quarterback twice this season, including for the stretch run.

Hot seat rating: 2½. Blank told Georgia Public Broadcasting on Dec. 20 that he was "committed to Smith" but wanted to “let the season play out and go from there." That's enough flexibility for this to go either way. Smith's idiosyncratic tactics and demeanor have left him vulnerable to heavy scrutiny. But it's clear that Blank would prefer to stand pat if possible, especially given that the beginning of Smith's time with the franchise involved a good deal of cap clean-up.

4. Matt Eberflus, Chicago Bears

In September, the Bears couldn't seem to go more than a few days between controversies, from defensive coordinator Alan Williams' resignation to $100,000 worth of equipment being stolen from Soldier Field. The flare-up that seemed to really ignite trouble amid an 0-4 start, however, was quarterback Justin Fields' suggestion that coaching could be partly to blame for his troubles with overthinking. Fields quickly backpedaled, but for a regime that already faced questions about how it had developed the 2021 first-round pick, the damage was done.

Now, however, things look starkly different for both Fields and Eberflus. Since the signal-caller returned from a dislocated thumb that sidelined him for four games, the Bears are 4-2. Fields, who hasn't been afforded much consistency or support from his surrounding cast, was met with chants of "we want Fields" during the Bears' 37-17 romp of the Falcons on Sunday. With the Bears having clinched the No. 1 pick in April's NFL draft thanks to last year's trade with the Carolina Panthers, the signal-caller's future with the franchise is unclear. But Eberflus certainly seems to be on more solid ground.

Hot seat rating: 2. A midseason defensive turnaround with Eberflus handling play-calling certainly boosts the coach's case to remain. Team president Kevin Warren – who arrived last January with Eberflus already in place – could always opt for a full overhaul, especially if the organization is inclined to move on from Fields and take a quarterback with the No. 1 pick. But the arrow is firmly pointing up for Eberflus, and some short-term stability would likely be welcomed.

5. Dennis Allen, New Orleans Saints

When Derek Carr agreed to a four-year contract with New Orleans in March, the veteran-laden Saints looked to have an extremely favorable pathway to the NFC South crown. Despite the division remaining up for grabs with no team boasting a winning record heading into the final weekend, Allen's crew has been undone by many of its big-ticket players – including Carr – underachieving. A 3-1 finish to the season has kept the Saints' playoff hopes alive, but the run has also highlighted potential that went unrealized for most of the season.

Still, the franchise's leadership has stayed committed to its vision of clawing into the postseason with its current core, eschewing a rebuild as its cap issues compound. It's unlikely any massive changes are coming to the roster given the financial limitations, so there might be little choice but to run things back for another year.

Hot seat ranking: 1½. Maybe there's a change somewhere within Allen's coaching staff, with offensive coordinator Pete Carmichael Jr. under fire after two turbulent years as play-caller. But the real time for change would be 2025, the first point at which the team can move on from Carr – who has a no-trade clause – without incurring a massive cap hit.